Texas Hold’em for Money – Expekt Referrer Code

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Poker Variance : Why Should I care ?

In the game of poker, the term “variance” is used to describe short-term results that deviate from expectations. Variance can be either positive (winning more than anticipated) or negative (losses exceeding forecast). Of course, the first step in coming up with a bankroll strategy that protects against negative variance is to know how much one should reasonably be winning on average.

Knowing What to Expect

Expectations are best based upon past history. Accurate record keeping is an absolute necessity, in this regard, allowing any player, amateur or pro, to determine a realistic win rate per hour. Proper records can also help avoid any unpleasant situations involving local tax authorities when the winnings begin to mount.

Consider, for example, Las Vegas-based poker pro Benjamin Fineman. Since 2007, he’s won $462,787 for seven World Series of Poker (WSOP) cashes, but he makes his living by playing live ring games fulltime. His preferred game is $5/10 No-Limit Texas Hold’em. Fineman can easily identify a negative variance when it occurs because he has calculated that grinding should earn him $119.77 per hour—a very specific and, in his case, reasonable expectation, every time he sits at a table.

For those who have not been keeping records or who are relatively new to play, a reasonable winning expectation might start out at one Big Blind per hour. As experience is gained, this expectation can easily be increased.

The Mathematics of Risk

A second factor that players have to know to develop a strategy for dealing with variance is how much risk they can handle. Like expected income per hour, this, too, is a number, usually expressed as a percentage and often referred to as the “risk of ruin” (R).

An occasional player who has a steady outside income might be willing to risk losing a bankroll once in ten trips to the table: R = 1/10 = 10% risk of ruin. A professional who depends on poker as a livelihood would be much less tolerant of losses and might insist on winning 99% of the time: R = 1%.

A third factor related to guarding against negative variance is something known as “standard deviation” (σ). Mathematically, a rather tedious calculation is required to compute this (σ = √*V, where V = variance over a given period of time), but it can be simplified by substituting a much less complex equation based on expectations:

ReferrerCode Formula : Standard Deviation Approximation

ReferrerCode’s No-Fail Bankroll Strategy to Never go broke

With the above figures available, it is possible to calculate exactly what size bankroll (B) is required to protect against negative variance as follows:

Knowing that you expect to earn $20/hr and want to do so with 95% certainty, it is easy to calculate the size of the bankroll required as

So a bankroll of about $3,000 is required to protect against negative variance. If the degree of confidence is increased to 99%, the calculation changes to

That’s only a 50% increase for five times as much security. And in the case of Ben Fineman, out to win $119.77 with 99% assurance, the numbers would be

However, it is unlikely that Fineman brings more than $25,000 with him to the $5/10 tables each time he plays. For one thing, the calculation of his actual standard deviation is probably far less than the σ = 10W used here for simplicity’s sake. If it were half that, just 5W, the bankroll required would be less than $7,000.

Also, the professional’s aversion to risk may be higher than 1%, which would reduce the size of the required bankroll again. The idea is to use the most accurate numbers available to get the greatest protection against negative variance from a bankroll sufficiently large.

About Pan European Gaming Company Expekt.com

Expekt is an all-in-one gaming site, offering live betting, casino games, and Texas Holdem for real money. The brand is especially recommended for beginning and seasoned gamblers. The parent company was established in 1999 and built from the ground up by a team of dedicated entrepreneurs which were also sports enthusiasts. On top of excelling at the task they were embarking on, the founders had a a strong sense of integrity. The vision was to create a virtual gambling environment that had all the advantages of a brick and mortar establishment in terms of honesty, and fairness of the games. Needless to say that this was achieved. Expekt is now a very recognized brand, and the website’s homepage is currently translated in no less than 14 languages. Although the site originated from the Nordic countries, its brand recognition has quickly started expanding to demographics like Germany, Italy, and many other European Countries. The site is Malta Based, and decided to bypass the USA market which is currently suffering from strenuous laws that limit transactions from financial institutions to gambling entities. This is currently caused by the UIGEA law that was tacked onto the Safe Port Bill.

Expekt is also widely recognized as a viable Bet365 Alternative, which is a testimony to its quality. Although the key demographics are all around the epicenter of Sweden where the site was founded, in particular: Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark, the site is gaining more and more popularity in the Western European countries, excluding France. France has their own regulations on sports betting, and Expekt hasn’t received an official license to operate, although this may change in the near future. The Western Europe countries where Expekt’s popularity is soaring are currently the UK and Ireland, as well as Scotland. Hence the need for an English only website about Expekt, tailored around bonus codes, or “referrer codes” as they are known on the site. ReferrerCode.org will focus on delivering the best bonus offers to our visitors, usually in the form of an Expekt referrer code, valid at all the gaming windows of the site: namely, the casino section, the sports betting or “Sportsbook” section, the poker section.